College Football Playoff: Quarterfinal Showdown

It feels like we have had to wait forever for the College Football Playoff to continue after last weekend's opening round, but the time is now. As we anticipate the ball dropping for the New Year, we also gear up for the neutral site quarterfinal round of the playoff. Let’s dive into the action, starting in Arizona, where State Farm Stadium hosts the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl.

One team has achieved legendary status in this very game. Boise State struck down Goliath in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl with a Statue of Liberty play for a two-point conversion, cementing their status as a Group of 5 power. Meanwhile, Penn State, a historically significant program now recovering from the controversies of the late 2000s and 2010s, enters the playoff behind a coach and program still seeking to prove their ability to shine under the brightest lights. James Franklin and the Nittany Lions aim for their first-ever semifinal appearance with a win tonight over the Broncos. The winner will move on to the Orange Bowl in Florida to face the victor of Georgia vs. Notre Dame; two wins away from a national championship.

Team Profiles

Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2)

BIG10 Runner-Up
Notable Games:

• Win 33-30 in OT on the road against USC

• Loss at home to #4 Ohio State 20-13

• Loss in BIG10 Championship to #1 Oregon 45-37

• Round of 12 CFP Win over #11 SMU 38-10

Penn State has shown this season that they carry a roster capable of competing with the best in the country. While wins in big games have eluded them, the talent on this squad matches that of teams like Oregon, Ohio State, and others in the playoff bracket. The Nittany Lions’ Achilles' heel has been unable to deliver in pivotal moments.

Head coach James Franklin does nearly everything you hope for in a premier program—except win when it counts most. That was the narrative entering the season, and while Penn State has struggled, they’ve also had their moments of redemption. Their hard-fought overtime victory in Los Angeles against USC stood out, flipping the narrative as Franklin’s squad overcame adversity, including grueling travel conditions. The emergence of X-factor Tyler Warren pushed Penn State to a massive win, keeping them alive in the playoff race despite a loss to Ohio State.

Tonight’s game will test whether Franklin and quarterback Drew Allar can handle the pressure of being one of the last eight teams.

Boise State Broncos (12-1)

Mountain West Champions
Notable Games:

• Loss to #7 Oregon 37-34

• Win over UNLV 29-24

• Win over Wyoming 17-13

• Win MWC over #20 UNLV 21-7

Boise State enters this round with a challenging task. While the Broncos are well-known for their historic win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, this team faces a much more difficult road to victory. In the Mountain West, Boise State’s talent often goes unchallenged. Tonight, however, their depth and numbers will be tested against a premier program like Penn State.

Ashton Jeanty will need to play at an extraordinary level for Boise to have a chance. Quarterback Maddsen’s accuracy (9/21 in their last game) must improve significantly, and Boise’s defense must force turnovers. Trick plays, a hallmark of Boise’s success, could be their saving grace—but only if executed flawlessly.

Prediction

I hoped SMU would upset Penn State in our initial playoff predictions, but that didn’t happen. Now, faith lies with the team that knocked them out. Penn State’s talent and depth, led by Abdul Carter, should overwhelm Boise’s linemen. For the Broncos to win, elevated performances from their quarterback and receivers are a must. Defense must step up, and Boise needs to execute bold trick plays—the kind of plays that got them here in the first place. Failure to do so could result in a blowout, further jeopardizing Group of 5 schools’ future in the playoff.

Let’s hope for a competitive game showcasing college football's best.

Final Thoughts

As you wait for 2025 to kick off, check out our YouTube channel for a quick wrap-up following tonight’s game. Expect coverage of the other quarterfinal matchups tomorrow. If you’ve enjoyed our content this year—whether through @FeOTBpod or the Variety Sports Network—we thank you for your support. It’s been an incredible year, and we’re excited to bring you along as we grow.

Be safe, enjoy the New Year with your loved ones, and prepare for more unforgettable college football moments!